How to Cope with Uncertainty Environments such as Pandemic?
The COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating and has affected all aspects of society around the world. There are three areas that are particularly adversely affected; economy, health and education. There was a 5.2% contraction in global GDP in 2020, and projections indicate that the global unemployment rate could rise from 4.9-5.6%. Per capita income has contracted globally and by the largest rate of countries since 1870. In total, the negative effects on the economy could lead up to 300 million people to fall below the poverty line internationally, and between 70 and 100 million people could fall into extreme poverty by 2020. And all this has resulted in global debt increasing by $24 trillion last year, despite governments’ various efforts to support economies, a much higher level of debt than seen in the 2008 global financial crash.
On top of the negative effects on the economy, the pandemic’s COVID-19 health effects beyond infections are added. Disruptions in global trade caused global food prices to increase by ~20% between January 2020 and January 2021.
Indeed, country surveys across countries around the world have shown that up to 40% of households run out of food or have reduced their consumption, with an average of 50% of households in the poorest countries confirming that someone has skipped at least one meal. In 79 countries, the total number of people with acute food insecurity was expected to rise to 272 million by the end of 2020.
Mental health has also been affected by the pandemic and related quarantine measures. Individuals with existing mental illness have experienced a detrimental effect on their mental health, with some countries seeing a double increase in the number of adults experiencing some form of depression. Increases in unemployment, increasing financial difficulties, social isolation, uncertainty about the future and disruption of clinical services can lead to increased alcohol intake and suicides.
The epidemic has also been difficult for children and teenagers. The quarantine measures associated with the COVID-19 pandemic represent the largest disruption to education systems in history, affecting more than 1.6 billion students in over 190 countries, representing 94% of the world’s student population.An increase of 25% or more in the proportion of children below the minimum educational qualification is estimated. School closures also affect the provision of basic services and benefits to families in need, such as access to nutritious food and supporting parents’ ability to work. states, organizations, individuals) will have unpredictable effects due to its complexity. When faced with a sudden shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic or other crises such as the 2008 global financial crash, complex systems go through unpredictable transitions that can have significant impacts on individuals and society’s ability to be resilient and recover from these shocks. For complex systems, the fundamental uncertainty about whether, when and how these transitions occur makes it difficult to know exactly what will happen or what needs to be done to reduce the potential negative effects.
Contextualizing Fundamental Uncertainty for Phase Transitions of Complex Systems
Systems are ubiquitous, and a simple definition of systems is a set of interconnected elements that produce their own patterns of behavior.
Starting from this basic definition, he quickly realizes that the world can be seen through the lens of systems, whether at the organismal, organizational, societal, governmental or global level. An important consideration for any system at any level is its complexity, because how a system behaves is not always simple, or even unpredictable.
The complexity of a system is the number of elements it has, their interconnections, and feedback. relates to cycles. These considerations suggest that complex systems exhibit a phenomenology that is difficult to predict. Elements and the rules by which they interact can be considered well-known, but it is far from easy to explain at a higher level of observation the properties that arise as a result of properties of elements at a lower level. Nonlinearity, interconnectedness, and emergence are three characteristics that make it difficult to predict exactly how a complex system will behave. The nonlinear behavior and interdependence of the elements of a complex system means that it is subject to irreversibility.
External factors or inputs to a complex system can be removed, but this does not mean that the complex system can return to its original state.These two factors combine to support the resulting behavior of a complex system that sees large effects from simple, small-scale changes, or in other words, greater than the total parts.
A classic example that shows these three factors in action is traffic congestion. Over a wide range of car densities on a highway, car speed is only slightly affected, but a threshold/tipping point characteristic of a particular highway causes traffic jams. Beyond that, a small increase in car density can lead to a disproportionate reduction in traffic flow. Another example is the transition of water from solid to liquid or liquid to gas, there is a critical threshold of pressure and temperature at which water will freeze, ice will melt, water will become steam and vapor will become water, but there can be no exact threshold. All of the mentioned changes are linked as they represent transitions of the system from one phase to another.
Phase Transitions
In complex systems, phase transitions occur at system-specific thresholds or tipping points.
However, these abrupt transitions result from nonlinear relationships and interconnections between different elements within the system. Looking at an example of a phase transition where water turns into steam, it can be observed that within a certain temperature range, the water will heat up and then proceed towards a regular boiling. As small and increasing amounts of heat continue to be added, there is a point where the change in the movement of water molecules is no longer regular, and it becomes chaotic as boiling water boils.
This transition is continuous, and only a gradual increase in temperature is required for a transition to a chaotic boiling. The point at which this phase transition occurs is the threshold or tipping point. It is a critical point where the system is almost unstable and possibly with minor perturbations leading to global effects and shows the emergent behavior of complex systems. Due to the nonlinear nature of complex systems, it is not possible to predict what the critical point will be or when a phase transition will occur. is even more difficult.Such as inputs in the system and responses to inputs. When and how phase transitions occur, represents a state of fundamental uncertainty about the effect on the system as a whole and also on its individual elements.
Fundamental Uncertainty
Basic uncertainty such as phase transitions In situations where the results from a given set of inputs to a complex system are unpredictable, it is very unique to allow statistical analysis that can give reliable probability estimates. Two important factors to consider in situations of fundamental uncertainty are context dependent and dynamic rather than static. Context is important because while there is information and methods available for collecting data on how different elements interact at the microscopic level within a system, the dynamic and nonlinear nature of the system is important to recognize this limitation to avoid the classic problems of overfitting. The future situation after 19 is uncertain and unpredictable. This can be very troubling, but taken another way, it can also provide a sense of hope.
In order to take the most appropriate measures, it is necessary to understand the restrictions and be honest about where the ignorance lies. A starting point for these actions should be to focus on the social determinants of health, as they have a tremendous impact on the health and well-being of individuals and communities more generally.
As you progress to the post-COVID-19 state, it helps to stay humble, hopeful and focused while continuing to build up body resilience. As soon as systems thinking ceases to be blinded by the illusion of control, it leads to another pending, glowing, obvious result. It is a different kind of way of doing that there is so much to do. The future is unpredictable, but it can be envisioned and lovingly brought to life. Systems cannot be controlled, but they can be redesigned. You can’t progress to a world without surprises for sure, but surprises can be expected, learned from, and even benefited from.
